COVID-19 in Sudbury & districts: Your weekly update November 4, 2021

Reporting period: Thursday, October 28, 2021, to Wednesday, November 3, 2021.

Please note: next week’s report will be issued on Friday, November 12, as Public Health commemorates Remembrance Day on November 11.

November 4, 2021 — The following is a summary of how the status of COVID-19 has changed in Public Health Sudbury & Districts’ service area over the last seven days up to end of day November 3,  2021: 158 new cases were reported and 175 cases were resolved. To date, 110 of the 158 cases had a mutation profile that is commonly associated with a COVID-19 variant of concern (VOC). Twelve (12) COVID-19 outbreaks were active this week, including 4 in workplaces, 2 in schools, and 1 each in a hospital, a long-term care home, a retirement home, a correctional facility, a congregate living setting, and a public community setting. Two (2) outbreaks were declared over in the past 7 days, 1 in a workplace and 1 in a school. There were no COVID-related deaths. At end of day November 3, 2021, there were 190 active cases in our service area and 10 active outbreaks. There were 8 local cases in hospital, while the rest were self-isolating.

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, there have been a total of 2 934 local cases of which 2744 are resolved, and sadly, 32 people have died in our service area. One thousand, five hundred and seventy-five (1 575) were confirmed or presumed to be COVID-19 variants of concern (VOC).

Of the 842 local cases of COVID-19 reported since June 1, 2021, 226 cases (27%) have been among fully vaccinated individuals. There have been 616 cases (73%) in unvaccinated or partially vaccinated residents (i.e., one-dose only). During that same period, there have been 23 local hospitalizations of which 17 cases (74%) were unvaccinated or partially vaccinated. Six (6) hospitalized cases (26%) were fully vaccinated.  Interpreting vaccine status data: please note that data on case counts by vaccination status are preliminary—and highly subject to change. Comparing cumulative numbers from week to week may lead to incorrect estimates of case counts by vaccination status for the previous 7 days.

Based on data from the last 14 days, the risk of contracting COVID-19 for unvaccinated residents of Sudbury and districts was 6.9 times the risk for fully vaccinated residents.

Recent Trends

• In the past 28 days, the overall incidence rate of COVID-19 in our area was 230.1 new cases per 100 000 population. Residents who were 30 to 39 years of age had the highest rate at 537.6 per 100 000 population. The rates among 20 to 29-year-olds (484.7 per 100,000) and 40 to 49 year-olds (255.3 per 100,00) were also higher than the overall rate in our area.  Rates among all other age groups were lower than the overall rate.
• The local incidence rate in the past 7 days was 79.4 new cases per 100 000 population, compared to 82.5 cases per 100 000 in the previous 7 days.
• Of the 158 new cases in our service area in the past week, 72 were a close contact of confirmed case and 20 were associated with an outbreak. This means that Public Health identified how these people were exposed to COVID-19 and was able to take quick action to prevent further spread. Thirty-nine (39) had no known epidemiological link. None were travel related. Twenty-seven (27) cases remained under investigation.
• Of the 158 cases reported this week, 154 reside in Greater Sudbury while 1 resides in Sudbury East, 2 in Sudbury West and 1 in Manitoulin district. (Note: for information on the definition of these geographic regions, please refer to the daily COVID-19 case update at phsd.ca/COVID-19/data).
• Between October 28 and November 3, Public Health identified 920 people as having had high-risk close contact with a case of COVID-19. This represents an average of 5.8 high-risk close contacts per local case reported in the past 7 days, compared to 4.5 high-risk close contacts per case reported last week. Public Health follows up directly and regularly with every high-risk close contact to monitor them for symptoms, ensure they are self-isolating (usually not required if fully vaccinated), and make recommendations for testing according to provincial guidance.
• The percent positivity was 4.2% for the period of October 27 to November 2, compared to 0.9% for the previous 7 days. The current rate is the highest we’ve seen since March 2020.
• For the period of October 27 to November 2 the effective reproductive number (Rt) was 1.1 for Northern Ontario, and 1.0 for Ontario overall.

Vaccination Program Update

Note: To ensure that our estimated rates of vaccination coverage remain as accurate as possible, as of October 14, 2021, the population figures used in these calculations have been updated to reflect counts recently made available from Statistics Canada. As the new 2020 population estimates are slightly higher than those previously used, readers may notice a decrease in our estimated coverage rates from those published prior to this date. Note that the same change was made by Public Health Ontario, so this improves the comparability of our estimates with their estimates. Provincial coverage estimates are taken from the provincial website. In addition, we have corrected our data to reflect recent updates to dose tracking processes, further decreasing our estimated coverage rates compared to those published prior to this date.

• To date, a total of 323 330 doses of COVID-19 vaccinations have been administered in Sudbury and districts. Thus far, 163 163 people have received their first dose of vaccine and 157 245 people have been fully vaccinated, of which 2 922 people have received a third dose (current as of 4 p.m. November 03, 2021). Note, this includes vaccines administered by Public Health, First Nation and Indigenous communities, primary care, and pharmacies.
• Over the last 7 days up to end of day November 03, 2021, a total of 1 953 vaccine doses were administered.
• Overall, 85.4% of Sudbury and districts residents aged 12+ have received their first dose of a vaccine, compared to 88.3% for all Ontario residents aged 12+.
• Second doses have been received by 81.8% of those aged 12+ in Sudbury and districts compared to 84.7% for all Ontario residents aged 12+.
• The following is a depiction of vaccinations received by age for individuals 12+ in Sudbury and districts.

Stay COVID-safe

• Stop and check-in with yourself daily by asking “how am I doing?” to help cope with stress due to COVID-19. Visit the Mental Health Commission of Canada (mentalhealthcommission.ca) and use the mental health continuum self-check tool to help identify changes in yourself and practice simple coping strategies like taking a breath, going for a brisk walk or talking to a friend.
• As you celebrate Diwali with loved ones today, assess the risk and celebrate in a COVID-safe way. Wishing you and your family a Diwali that brings happiness, prosperity, and joy to all.
• With Remembrance Day ceremonies taking place next week, please be COVID-safe, including staying home if you have a COVID-19 symptom, even a mild one.
• Don’t delay, complete your COVID-19 vaccine series! Get your first and second doses now, and a third if you are eligible. Visit: phsd.ca/COVID-19/vaccine-clinics to book your vaccination appointment as soon as possible.

What’s new

• Booster doses of the mRNA COVID-19 vaccine (Moderna Spikevax and Pfizer-BioNTech Comirnaty) are available in the Sudbury and Manitoulin districts for select populations, as announced November 3 by the Government of Ontario. For details including eligibility and how to book, read the news release on phsd.ca. A complete two-dose COVID-19 vaccine primary series provides strong protection against COVID-19 infection and severe outcomes, including against the Delta variant, in the general population. Based on emerging evidence, a booster dose can now be offered to select populations at least 6 months after a second dose to obtain more durable protection. Given current evidence and vaccine supply, booster doses are not considered urgent. For a schedule of Public Health clinic dates, times, and locations, and eligibility, visit phsd.ca/COVID-19/vaccine-clinics.
• It is anticipated that in the next few weeks, the COVID-19 vaccine will be approved for children aged 5-11.Public Health Sudbury & Districts will be sharing information about the COVID-19 vaccine for children ages 5-11 years, as well as process for consent, and opportunities to obtain the vaccination once we learn more from the Ontario Ministry of Health.

Message from Dr. Penny Sutcliffe, Medical Officer of Health

Locally we are still seeing a concerning number of COVID-19 cases and that means a significant amount of follow-up with people who have tested positive for the virus and their close contacts. Public Health investigates all positive cases and provides direction, including self-isolation instructions. Due to the surge in cases, Public Health has reached out and is grateful to support we are receiving from staff based in local public health units across the province and from the provincial government workforce. Last week, I issued a Class Order requiring all individuals in Public Health Sudbury & Districts’ service area who are either a case, potential case or contact of a case to follow Public Health direction. Our collective resolve to follow COVID-safe behaviours is key to slowing the spread of the virus. As we look to the future, our vaccination coverage continues to climb and is well over 80% fully vaccinated. Yesterday’s announcement from the province about increased eligibility for booster doses is certainly welcome news and will allow eligible residents to have increased protection against COVID-19. Please keep up your guard to prevent the spread of COVID-19 and make sure to Remember Safely on November 11 next week.

Regular updates

Visit phsd.ca/COVID-19/data for regular updates about COVID-19 testing, confirmed cases, as well as outbreaks and potential exposures in Greater Sudbury, the Sudbury District, and the Manitoulin District.  A detailed epidemiology summary is posted on Tuesday that includes information about cases over time, case characteristics, probable exposures, case outcomes, testing, and outbreaks in facilities. In addition, a detailed vaccination report is produced on Tuesdays that includes information about vaccine administration over time, by regions, by brand, by dose, and by age groups. The report also provides additional context by comparing our data to Ontario.

For more information or if you have questions, please visit phsd.ca/COVID-19 or call Public Health Sudbury & Districts at 705.522.9200 (toll-free 1.866.522.9200).