COVID-19 in Sudbury & districts: Your weekly update November 12, 2021

Reporting period: Thursday, November 4, 2021, to Wednesday, November 10, 2021.

November 12, 2021 — The following is a summary of how the status of COVID-19 has changed in Public Health Sudbury & Districts’ service area over the last seven days up to end of day November 10, 2021: 254 new cases were reported and 174 cases were resolved. To date, 197 of the 254 cases had a mutation profile that is commonly associated with a COVID-19 variant of concern (VOC). Nineteen (19) COVID-19 outbreaks were active this week, including 7 in workplaces, 3 in schools, 2 in retirement homes, 2 in congregate living settings, and 1 each in a hospital, a long-term care home, a daycare, a correctional facility, and a public community setting. Three (3) outbreaks were declared over in the past 7 days, 1 in a workplace, 1 in a correctional facility and 1 in a school. There was 1 COVID-related death. At end of day November 10, 2021, there were 270 active cases in our service area and 15 active outbreaks. There were 14 local cases in hospital, while the rest were self-isolating.

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, there have been a total of 3 188 local cases of which 2 918 are resolved, and sadly, 33 people have died in our service area. One thousand, seven hundred and seventy-two (1 772) were confirmed or presumed to be COVID-19 variants of concern (VOC).

Of the 1 096 local cases of COVID-19 reported since June 1, 2021, 329 cases (30%) have been among fully vaccinated individuals. There have been 767 cases (70%) in unvaccinated or partially vaccinated residents (i.e., one-dose only). During that same period, there have been 34 local hospitalizations of which 24 cases (71%) were unvaccinated or partially vaccinated. Ten (10) hospitalized cases (29%) were fully vaccinated.  Interpreting vaccine status data: please note that data on case counts by vaccination status are preliminary—and highly subject to change. Comparing cumulative numbers from week to week may lead to incorrect estimates of case counts by vaccination status for the previous 7 days.

Based on data from the last 14 days, the risk of contracting COVID-19 for unvaccinated residents of Sudbury and districts was 3.5 times the risk for fully vaccinated residents.

Recent Trends

• In the past 28 days, the overall incidence rate of COVID-19 in our area was 320.6 new cases per 100 000 population. Residents who were 20 to 29 and 30 to 39 years of age had the highest rates at 625.6 and 621.0 new cases per 100 000 population, respectively. The rates among those 40 to 49 years of age (371.9 per 100,00) was also higher than the overall rate in our area.  Rates among all other age groups were lower than the overall rate.
• The local incidence rate in the past 7 days was 127.7 new cases per 100 000 population, compared to 79.4 cases per 100 000 in the previous 7 days.
• Of the 254 new cases in our service area in the past week, 105 were a close contact of confirmed case and 56 were associated with an outbreak. This means that Public Health identified how these people were exposed to COVID-19 and was able to take quick action to prevent further spread. Sixty-nine (69) had no known epidemiological link. Two (2) cases were travel related. Twenty-two (22) cases remained under investigation.
• Of the 254 cases reported this week, 244 reside in Greater Sudbury while 8 reside in Manitoulin district and 2 in Sudbury West. (Note: for information on the definition of these geographic regions, please refer to the daily COVID-19 case update at phsd.ca/COVID-19/data).
• Between November 4 and November 10, Public Health identified 1 503 people as having had high-risk close contact with a case of COVID-19. This represents an average of 5.9 high-risk close contacts per local case reported in the past 7 days, compared to 5.8 high-risk close contacts per case reported last week. Public Health follows up directly and regularly with every high-risk close contact to monitor them for symptoms, ensure they are self-isolating (usually not required if fully vaccinated), and make recommendations for testing according to provincial guidance.
• The percent positivity was 5.6% for the period of November 3 to November 9, compared to 4.2% for the previous 7 days. The current rate is the highest we’ve seen locally since the beginning of the pandemic.
• For the period of November 3 to November 9 the effective reproductive number (Rt) was 1.38 for Northern Ontario, and 1.21 for Ontario overall.

Vaccination Program Update

Note: To ensure that our estimated rates of vaccination coverage remain as accurate as possible, as of October 14, 2021, the population figures used in these calculations have been updated to reflect counts recently made available from Statistics Canada. As the new 2020 population estimates are slightly higher than those previously used, readers may notice a decrease in our estimated coverage rates from those published prior to this date. Note that the same change was made by Public Health Ontario, so this improves the comparability of our estimates with their estimates. Provincial coverage estimates are taken from the provincial website. In addition, we have corrected our data to reflect recent updates to dose tracking processes, further decreasing our estimated coverage rates compared to those published prior to this date. Finally, as of November 12, 2021, total doses administered has been adjusted due to a data classification error. This correction does not affect coverage rate calculations.

• To date, a total of 315 523 doses of COVID-19 vaccinations have been administered in Sudbury and districts. Thus far, 158 584 people have received their first dose of vaccine and 152 988 people have been fully vaccinated, of which 3 951 people have received a third dose (current as of 4 p.m. November 11, 2021). Note, this includes vaccines administered by Public Health, First Nation and Indigenous communities, primary care, and pharmacies.
• Over the last 7 days up to end of day Thursday, November 11, 2021, a total of 2 442 vaccine doses were administered.
• Overall, 85.8% of Sudbury and districts residents aged 12+ have received their first dose of a vaccine, compared to 88.6% for all Ontario residents aged 12+.
• Second doses have been received by 82.4% of those aged 12+ in Sudbury and districts compared to 85.4% for all Ontario residents aged 12+.
• 75.9% of the total population of Sudbury and districts have received their first dose and 72.9% have been fully immunized. This means that there are over 55 600 residents who are not currently fully immunized.
• The following is a depiction of vaccinations received by age for individuals 12+ in Sudbury and districts.

Stay COVID-safe

• Instructions issued under the provincial Reopening Ontario Act (PDF) require Greater Sudbury businesses and organizations to reinstate capacity limits recently lifted by the province. Do your part and be COVID-safe by working remotely if you can, minimize outings, getting tested and staying home if you are even mildly unwell, masking and distancing, and getting vaccinated.
• A reminder that a Class Order issued under the Health Protection and Promotion Act, is in effect requiring all individuals in our service area who are either a case, potential case, or contact of a case to follow Public Health direction.
• During challenging times such as these, practicing kindness and patience lightens the burden more than just a little bit – it helps you and those around you too! Together, we are supporting each other to get through this.
• Put vaccination on your to-do list and encourage others to do so. Consider having conversations about vaccination with your friends and loved ones. Take a look at the conversation guide to build vaccine confidence in our communities.

What’s new

• On Monday, November 8, Penny Sutcliffe, Public Health Sudbury & Districts’ Medical Officer of Health issued a Letter of Instruction under the provincial Reopening Ontario Act, in accordance with the Plan to Safely Reopen Ontario and Manage COVID-19 for the Long Term (Government of Ontario, PDF). The Instructions require Greater Sudbury businesses and operators to reinstate protections recently lifted by the province. In addition, the Letter of Instruction strengthens masking requirements at organized public events and provincial proof of identification & vaccination requirements for organized sports, requiring anyone 12 years of age and older who actively participates in organized sports to provide proof of vaccination unless a medical exemption applies. For a detailed list of instructions that came into effect November 10, 2021, please see the Letter of Instruction on phsd.ca.
• On Thursday, November 11, Dr. Penny Sutcliffe, Public Health Sudbury & Districts’ Medical Officer of Health issued an updated Letter of Instruction under the provincial Reopening Ontario Act (PDF), that applies to anyone 12 years of age and older across the Sudbury and Manitoulin districts who actively participates in organized sports (not just coaches, officials, etc.). Effective, 12:01 a.m., Monday, November 15, 2021, these participants will be required to provide proof of vaccination unless a medical exemption applies.

Message from Dr. Penny Sutcliffe, Medical Officer of Health

In response to the alarming rise in COVID-19 case counts in Greater Sudbury, earlier this week I issued a Letter of Instruction under the provincial Reopening Ontario Act. The Instructions turn back the clock and as of Wednesday, November 10, 2021, reinstated recently lifted capacity limits for settings that require proof of vaccination. In addition, the Instructions strengthen masking requirements at organized public events and require anyone 12 years of age and older who actively participates in organized sports to provide proof of vaccination. The instruction concerning organized sports will be applicable throughout Sudbury and Manitoulin districts as of 12:01 a.m., Monday, November 15. I understand this is not the news anybody wanted, but we have to act quickly to stem the tide of cases, and reduce the impact on people, schools and the health system. Our current situation, bad as it is, could get even worse with cooler weather ahead and people spending more time indoors. We need to get back on track. This means working from home where possible, minimizing outings, getting tested and staying home even if mild symptoms, and taking all the precautions possible if you have to or choose to interact face-to-face with others. It is again time to ramp up our COVID-19 prevention actions and break the chains of transmission. As we continue on this path together, I wish for everyone’s safety, but also for your ongoing patience and kindness with one another as we get back on track.

Regular updates

Visit phsd.ca/COVID-19/data for regular updates about COVID-19 testing, confirmed cases, as well as outbreaks and potential exposures in Greater Sudbury, the Sudbury District, and the Manitoulin District.  A detailed epidemiology summary is posted on Tuesday that includes information about cases over time, case characteristics, probable exposures, case outcomes, testing, and outbreaks in facilities. In addition, a detailed vaccination report is produced on Tuesdays that includes information about vaccine administration over time, by regions, by brand, by dose, and by age groups. The report also provides additional context by comparing our data to Ontario.

For more information or if you have questions, please visit phsd.ca/COVID-19 or call Public Health Sudbury & Districts at 705.522.9200 (toll-free 1.866.522.9200).